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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.